On Monday, November 5, the Stimulus View Dinner will be held at the African National Congress. "Business leaders" will be charged the amount of R1 million for two seats at the table of President Cyril Ramaphosy, and R600,000 for several chairs at the vice president table David Mabuzy. (Reservation emptor: Do not leave the wallet unattended). Following closely Ramaphosy's "Investment Peak", during which the CEOs promised don's money as he sat in a chair similar to the throne, accepting their generosity, it became clear that while Ramaphosa had promised to clean up his corruption, he deepened the relationship between the ruling South African party and its the ruling oligarchy. This is not good for democracy, but it is a great thing for massively discounted sandwiches.
Not very clever
The climax of Martin Scorsese"masterpiece, Goodfellas. is one of the most perfect episodes of cinema ever made. This happens in a camouflaged, paranoid fog: above, a helicopter observing the martyr's mafia Henry & Hill, and in everyday duties: sell a handbag; cassette cocaine for a drug mule; sautme veal for dinner. Below is a network of gangsters and drug addicts constantly approaching his floundering. We know this Henry & # 39; s"s triple act is unbalanced, but we are"you are never sure if it is"we'll end up in a) an arrest.b) a bullet in the head or c) an escape to an unspecified Canadian prairie town. Cinematography"The main act of legerdemain makes us care about Hill, a two-time rat who was unfaithful to everyone in his life, including his mistresses.
The sequence here should be obvious. The ANC is in the final act of its epic caper, and the evil helicopter of the juju circulates relentlessly. In a country driven by half-insane for four centuries of sanganigans from supremacy, the madness that is now developing seems very similar to … ordinary business.
Two things in particular have become clear in the months since the brightly entertaining Zondo State Capture The commission horror has begun the process.
First, for the last decade of ANChe switched to a gangsterplayground so perverse and rich that senior leaders would not think of mass murdering each other for political appointments, or shaking banks to secure financesfor capo benefactors. (This part is a bit fucked up: the secretary general of ANC at this time, Gwede Mantashe, he nudged financial contractors to reconsider unblocking unpaid Gupta. The Minister of the Holocaust at that time, Mosebenzi Zwane, threatened to unload the banks. Mantashe is now the Minister of Mining. Called remains a Member of the Parliament. And South Africa remains the only place on Earth that makes bankers look like saints.)
Second and very related: the country is broken. He did not broke down like in. Shit, I can"I can afford a new pair of work shoes and I may be short of rent this month. But catastrophically, existentially, how did they do-here-here? He busted.
Surprisingly, while the above-mentioned problems are mutually reinforcing, both are completely self-sufficient. Zondo Commission together with Nugent downommissionin the SARS case and, to a lesser extent, the latest and more comprehensive Tribune people on economic crime, abolishes the scale and trajectory of our national collapse. Now it is a historical issue that after the plunder of the colonial era there were the thefts of apartheid, which were transformed into the harm of concluding the weapon, and then the nightmare of the Zuma regime. Considering various depredations of apartheid, ANC"Work will never be easy. But they were giving the voters a brochure called Ready to rule. promisin exchange for power, they would break the cycle of robbery and shame that has been going on for centuries.
They have instead extend it to eternity.
Now the new don wants to rule. Not really reallydoes. Cyril Ramaphosa and his small team of like-minded reformers are serious about their attempts to overthrow this country. The problem is that many of them actively and consciously put us in this problem. (Howzit Gwede! G & # 39; day Gigaba!) More importantly, they"I left it too late. south Africa is obviously in crisisrecession,those that Deputy President David Mabuza has recently described as a state of mind, but this is not the worst part of the economic picture. It is an honor to refer to the fact that we"tethered to debt incurred by our state-owned enterprises, which is a nightmarish 11% of our GDP, a yoke that pulls us from the cliff to eternal misery.
The International Monetary Fund is approaching. At this moment, almost nothing can stop them. But what would happen if we designed our own stimulus package by running a fiscus by building bridges and bridges over bridges, a Keynesian orgy of concrete and agricultural cooperatives extending up to the DRC?
Works in economics textbooks. It should work well here.
If the South African government had trained and made it possible to build a class of gifted bureaucratsto our institutions not burdened by gangster politicians – and it is not"T– there will be a case for a gigantic, defibrillation currency of cash. But the government has no will or energy to grow and professionalize the public sector, and it can not borrow money at a level that is important enough to ignite real economic power ups. Instead a fewmonths ago we were professionalfahe deserved what she called Ramaphosbehind "stimulation package"– which is really just a reorientation of the government"s priorities in this waymakes sense. (Relaxation of the draconian visa policy, one of the two internal ministers of interior affairs Malusia Gigaba'scountless legacies, it is so obvious that it is not"they even constitute an idea.)
We"I've been here before. Every tin regime, broken, end of the day – Donald's thought"s Amerikkkbehind– begins with promises of unimaginable mega-dream infrastructure. (Trump promised a "huge"an amount that would largely bepaid to contractors from the private sector. Nothing has happened yet. For his part, Ramaphosa apparently unleashes a A 400 billion-billion, independent infrastructure fundthat will also go to what's left of the private sector. Nothing has happened yet.)
ANC, as well as political parties around the world, has always understood infrastructure spending to mark the spread of patronage and / or politicking with pork barrels. Unfortunately, Ramaphosa seems to think that the whole stimulus will work or will work, or it will work until the image of the debt is reversed. But he was wrong. This is how it happens: the South African government pays the companies belonging to related buddies to do a job they know will never happen; or renting a company-owned company and delayspayeat them until they die of hunger(former general manager of the treasury Lungisa Fuzile bitterly described this technique as"governmental cash flow management"); or gives large corporations of the Apartheid era the opportunity to paint two regimes in order to rebuild bridges and viaducts.
Bafflingly, a fake stimulus package was welcomed in the press as second packet come, well, stimulus. But that does not apply"• make it a stimulus package. It was also not clear what projects the money will be allocated to, or how it will flow through the economy clogged with SoE debt, and where there is no political certainty with regard to property ownership, taking into account the specter of land expropriation without compensation.
Perhaps all this will be discussed on the maniacally expensive ANCDinner with a view of Stimulus, be swishy hosted in Johannesburg Summer place, a small colonial land of wonderland, where furniture is made of molten statues of Cecil John Rhodes, and the soup is served in inverted helmets with a core.(Not really, but it should be.) The invitation to dinner has been circulating among the hoi polloi in the last week, and even among the esteemed classes – not known for shame – has caused spontaneous vomiting attacks.
Q: On which planet does the country ruling party with over 9.3 million unemployed send an invitation to a two-month dinner with a value of R1 million?
A: On the planet South Africa, apparently.
While Ramaphosa will be the star of the series, the country seeminglyabsurdly crooked The Vice-President will be the host of the table where two seats for R600,000 will take place. An entrepreneurial business giant can also watch Gwede Mantasheinhale the carpaccio springbok, while the minister of public enterprises – the favorite of all Mr Clean – Pravin Gordhan, chilled milk Moët. Deputy Secretary General Jessie Duartethere will be. So her bossAce Magashule. And a new finance minister Tito Musiwhich a recently submitted mid-term statement on fiscal policy this is another proof of how seriously the ANC has bothered the economy of this country: it did not propose a stimulus package but a New York-based savings regime that would be approved by the credit agency.
I will have abalone
In any case, blatant purchasing of access is a hallmark of how the congress has always "negotiated" with business: give us money and we will play nicely. For Zuma, who preferred smugglers of cigarettes and sellers of used machinery from bankers and hedge fund operators, ANC routinely withdrew from the contract until the former finance minister Nhlanhla Nene was released in December 2015. And the oligarchs got into prison and he demanded a return. It worked for about a year otherformer former finance minister has been released. To finally end the war, the Zuma opposition in ANC was engaged with hundreds of millions of rand to organize a campaign for President of Congress. The Ramaphos team won. And now they want to win the national elections in 2019. So these e-wallets must start to ping again.
"Pay-to-play" agreements are the standard operating procedure in any democracy. But this does not make contracts ethical, and especially disgusting in a country that is routinely referred to as the most uneven in the world. In an unsuccessful post-capitalist kleptocracy, R1-million allows whispering sweet words to the ear of the "reformer" of the president, whose internal circle has convinced himself that an alliance with the business elite of the country will cause "growth" and "improvement." better investment environment. "It will not be. Under the cover of darkness – or rather in the candlelight of Summer Palace candles – it can only lead to corruption.
Even more disturbing in this "Stimulus View Dinner" is that it indicates the greatest weakness of Ramaphosy (outside, you know, a generalized weakness) – his routine combination of the party and the state. After the liberation, this is a software error in Africa: the ruling party confuses the walls of its headquarters with the borders of the country. In the sale of an incentive as an ANC policy, not as government policy, the Ramaphosy congress (divided) resembles a business that rules and where their fate lies. But by jamming cash at ANC, "business leaders" will not cause major shocks to foreign direct investment (FDI) or the new Silicon Valley. They will simply prolong the life of ANC – a stimulus package for discussing stimulus packages. Even for companies that sat on hundreds of billions of cash rand during the so-called "investment strike" – which Ramaphosa allegedly ended – it is a waste of money.
The last thing about the alliance between ANC and its oligarchs-peters: scum and contenders for Zuma can be bad for a legitimate business. But it turns out that legal business is also detrimental to legitimate business. Consider the recently published PwC "Global Assessment of Economic Crime and Fraud 2018: South Africa"who assessed Sandton corporations as the most fraudsters in the world. So if ANC is clearly corrupt, like business leaders paying for the pleasure of eating, how can this lead to a "reform" or "new dawn"?
If Ramaphosa was serious about changing the situation, he would commit himself to a regime of absolute transparency. He will quickly track the bill to finance the political party before the elections in 2019, which will result in much cleaner party finances that will lead to the upcoming campaign. (He will not be.) He will demand from Sandton not money for his party, but help in re-predicting the economy that would lead to the breakup of the great monopolies. (Think of Germany.) He would divide the ruling party from the government in his head and remind himself that his main task is to serve all the people of South Africa, not the family members of the Ace Magashule family.
The Goodfellas the chopper circulates and has to land on ANC's head. All criminal syndicates are finally liquidated by their own greed. The real shame for the ANC is that the whole country is falling.DM
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