Trump sanctions against Iran threaten to destabilize the world order


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"The United States will not be able to transform the fourth of November into a bitter anniversary in Iran's history," said Ali Khamenei's supreme leader this year. You're right because the Islamic Revolution, November 4, is a tragic day in historic memory. On this day in 1964 the Sahá of Iran denied Khomeini to Turkey. He lived in Bursa in a Turkish intelligence officer's house. After 11 months, he moved to Najaf in Iraq. In 1978 Saddam Hussein was sent to France and lived there in a neighborhood in Paris, in the political salon, and planned the revolution.
It is questionable whether President Trump has checked the annual calendar to contribute to Iran's national anniversary but is confident that it is concerned not only by the Iranians, but also on the world economy, owing to the expected rise in oil prices. "Sanctions are in violation of the world order," Foreign Minister Jaifad Zarif warned in an interview with CBS. The global system can not be influenced by new Sunday sanctions on Iranian oil, but if citizens of many countries in the world have to pay more for cars and electricity for their homes, and factories have to raise their prices, resistance to Western countries being able to do so. By contrast, western analysts estimate that in Saudi Arabia and Russia, the shortage of about 1 million barrels a day will be completed, which will be imposed when sanctions are imposed. But this is a process that will last until at least 2019. US policy, however, is based on the good will of Saudi Arabia and Russia, both of which will benefit from rising oil prices. For their cooperation, the United States should be asked to pay a non-cheap political currency that would facilitate Russia's sanctions and help in Saudi Arabia. She hides the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi.

Unlike Bolton and the foreigners

At the same time, the US administration has distinguished John Bolton from the National Security Adviser, who demands strict sanctions without concessions (excluding food and drug imports), while the Foreign Ministry supports the slowdown in oil production in Iran in order to anticipate fuel prices. Bolton eased the tone this week when he said that "the United States does not want to touch the friendly countries and it seems we can not stop the sanctions," that is, access to the absolute ban on imports of oil. Finance Minister Stephen Malluchen, who advocates stricter sanctions, also suggests that Iran should not turn away from the Swift system to use it for the essence and purchase of medicines, underlining the principle that sanctions are directed against the regime and not the against the Iranian people.
This statement, however, is controversial because sanctions against the system are sanctions against the people and vice versa. If the goal is for the people to rebel against the regime, all relief from sanctions reassures the hopeful uprising. This disagreement and contradiction suggests that the administration itself does not know exactly what it wants to achieve with sanctions, and at least does not know how to bridge the Iranian Iranian armed Iranian and its willingness to ally. One option is to respond to requests by countries such as India and Turkey which have been exempted from sanctions. In order to persuade the administration of granting exemption, it greatly reduced the volume of Iranian oil purchases. India, which has bought up to 500,000 barrels (bpd) today, has reduced its purchase by about a third in recent weeks. So Turkey has done the third buyer by size. But he did not promise to completely stop trading with Iran.

Exemption from sanctions

Thus, on Wednesday, India was partially exempted from sanctions and could buy another 1.5 million tons of oil a month. About half of the oil payments will be made in rupees and the other half will be made in euros. The cost of the rupee would be based on Iranian imports from India for consumer goods and would not pay in cash to Iran. India told the United States that Iran will not be able to use money for military purposes, China, which buys 800,000 barrels a day, reduced the amount of purchases, but has made it clear that it can not afford to freeze because it thinks there is not enough oil They can fill the shortage in the world.

America does not know how to bridge the gap between Tehran's arm and the fear of his allies

If the United States agrees to grant such exemptions or partial exemptions and if it is forced to impose strict Chinese sanctions on sanctions, it will result in Iran having to sell some 1.5 million barrels. This would be even better than at the time of the sanctions imposed by President Obama before the nuclear agreement was signed. Here is the root of the estimation that Trump will not give up and will not endure to show that the president is softer than his predecessor.

A way that goes beyond the sanctions

Meanwhile, India, Iran, China and Russia are negotiating a route to the Suez Canal from India via Shahbhar Airport in Iran to China and Russia, saving up to 30% of the current transport costs through the Suez Canal. India invests $ 500 million in the port of Iran, and it appears that when it opens this route it will be used as a by-pass for sanctions against Iran.
These considerations do not exempt Iran from preparing the sanctions. The Iranian Parliament is currently considering proposals to fill public funds in order to alleviate the financial difficulties expected after the imposition of penalties. One of the proposals is that the consumption quota consumed by consumers for each consumption should be charged at a higher price. However, the difference between the official price of $ 0.24 / liter (the global average is $ 1.17 / liter) and the added amount is less than $ 0.12 per liter less than a significant part of the income.
Another proposal is to raise fuel prices without quotas, but politically, it seems like a proposal that provokes serious protests. Iran hopes that the EU Member States' plan to circumvent US bank sanctions will continue to offer a financing channel that can buy goods outside US sanctions. However, the system has not yet been finalized and the effectiveness of European law that is expected to be punished by companies subject to US sanctions does not guarantee anything, and companies calculate their economic considerations and consider whether they are more punished by US or European law. The Iranian intelligence operation in Iran has been launched in Denmark by an Iranian anti-terrorist activist in Denmark, this time bringing the Islamic Republic to a new problem. Denmark has changed its position not only for sanctioning Iran, but also for persuading other European countries to join US sanctions.

Iranian upholstery

Important tapestries are the Iranian hard currency reserve, estimated at over $ 100 billion. The problem is that the funds are operating in banks that would be damaging if they allowed Iran to use its funds for purposes that sanctions would not allow. Despite the fact that Vice President Isaac Jehnagiri stated, "Iran is ready for all scripts." Even parliament has approved the replacement of the Hassan Rowhani government of economic ministers and is doubtful whether these ministers are able to provide magic materials to rescue Iran from the trap of sanctions. Rouhani may be convinced that the Revolutionary Guard has decided to sell its shares in the state mobile phone company, Khomeini's instructions.
The army also announced that it will gradually step out of the intervention of the country's economy, which Rohani has since presented since the presidency. He also showed his personal confidence when he declared that Iran was victorious over the United States, because "Americans of Europe's allies have left and those who believed that Europe is against Iran against the United States." But you have to do more dramatic steps, it's hard on it and the whole system.
Iran's US policy has become a tangle and a link to the Middle East and the world. Among the agreements and agreements destroyed by Trump, the most important, most influential and most dangerous is the withdrawal from the nuclear agreement with Iran, whether crushing or revoking. More than the unfortunate love story that the embassy has brought to Jerusalem, the withdrawal from UNESCO, the UNRWA, and the Canadian and Mexican rivalry, the ability of the president to prove his success or punishment. Trump is not afraid of the gap that most of the world finds. Rather, it underestimated the European Union, isolated the United States, and strengthened the enemy block, which includes Russia and China, and Iran threatened more than the world peace after the nuclear agreement and became a basic chapter of American ideology. New Trump production, which attempts to launch the coup on Sunday.

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