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Is there any margin for placing a peso?



As a result, the rate was added another, in addition to the announcement of the IMF authorization to sell Treasury dollars, which is in the low place. And it is companies and banks that finance their pesos needs through exchange operations. They sell dollars and buy them in the future. The alleged rate between these two contributions is 47% per annum, much lower than the price of money on the financial market, where, for example, interbank loans cost more than 56% annually and much more overdrafts for companies.

There are other data that lead to the assumption that the foreign currency position of a foreign fund would be closed, which had an impact on the currency price increase in the first week of March. The exchange between the ticket and the transfer has been significantly reduced in recent days from 4% to 2.5%, which indicates a slowdown in capital outflow.

The progress of Minister Nicolás Dujovne that the IMF will authorize the State Treasury to sell USD 9,600 million in daily auctions worth USD 60 million from April to the end of the year, caused an additional withdrawal of the dollar yesterday. However, although the quantity, term and frequency were better than the previous one, this would not change much. The instrument would be low in gravity to neutralize any overflow, because it happened to both sides, causing fluctuations of 50 cents at just $ 8 million serviced up to 5 minutes after closing the exchange day.

Skeptics, however, notice certain signs that prevent final conclusions. For example, inflation that does not go away (3.8% in February).

The new tool may be insufficient as it represents only 5% of the daily volume of activity, from which the single and free exchange market (MULC) will be moved from the fourth month of the year. Add to the set of cash absorption and sale rates for futures contracts. But it does not define it.

Regarding price changes, which would have increased by around 10% in the first quarter, a comparison with the closing of USD 37.70 in the wholesale dollar at the end of December suggests that the US dollar price is USD 41.50 at the end of March would remain real.

In turn, agricultural sources relativise net income from exchange of currencies from cereal exports from next month. Exporters are introducing dollars to buy in peso, soy and corn from producers. They warn that these, in turn, do not remain in the local currency. Either they keep the production in silo bags or change the proceeds from sales to dollars.

Undoubtedly, these crops will be very good, according to an estimate of 54 million tonnes of soybeans and 47 million tonnes of maize, according to the Rosario exchange. In the volume, by 54% more than in the previous campaign and with yields higher than the record in the season 2016/17 for oilseeds. But there is no guarantee that dollars that liquidates exports will be kept by producers in the local currency. What comes through the window will return, at least partially, to another.

In a different order, the profitability offered by banks for term deposits is not accompanied by the growth rate of Leliq, which in a few weeks has increased by 2000 basis points and is exclusive for entities. The rate for 30-day fixed conditions is 38%, Badlar rate is 40.8% per annum, and TM20 for deposits worth more than USD 20 million, or 42.6%. The difference is wide and reduces the attractiveness for a possible pesos plant in the context of volatility, in which the pre-election climate is a factor that will increasingly play a leading role in investment decisions.

For those who are willing to put a token on the scales in this scenario, the idea is not to grant more than 20% / 25% of the total portfolio to fixed-term variants or letters adapting to inflation (Lecer), Lecap, which capitalizes interest on a monthly basis, or those corrected by Badlar, assuming that this rate should soon approach the rate of calls.

The rest of the portfolio suggests keeping it in dollars, in assets such as short-term Letes (treasury bills) or AO20 or AY24, whose profitability is above 10% per annum and more than twice as much as TIR regional papers of similar duration, such as those from Brazil, Colombia , Mexico and Chile, which expire in 2021.


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