According to analysts inflacin started the path with rising trend from August and although it will have valleys, it will maintain its growth in the next six months and will reach from 3.3% to 4.1% per month, except for changes for. This trend was marked by the Market Expectations Survey (REM), a monthly public opinion poll Central Bank (BCRA).
The average of the respondents calculated their predictions inflacin estimating that 2020 will end with inflation between 36.4% and 36.7%. For his part, z BCRA filed as means a inflacin overall between 17m4 and 17.1 points lower than 53.8% in 2019.
The problem is that the data are estimates 1.3 or 0.9 points higher than the forecasts from a month ago. Moreover, October is the first time since the start of the pandemic in which respondents failed to calculate inflacin 3.2% in total, and the finding was 3.8% reported by Indec.
Hand in hand with this forecast for inflacin for 2021 they increased from 48.9% to 50% and revised the increase in their estimate.
They estimate inflacin November was between 3.5% and 3.6% and they maintain the calculation of 4% for December and 4.1% for January, and also clearly increased in the case of the February and March forecasts.
This is how analysts believe that the inflacin This will be saved in 2020, due to the rate freeze and price agreements that started to become visible in the last months of the year and will continue in the first four months of 2021, given the official announcements that reported end of freezing in March.
The economy, showing a recovery, will lead to the return of the distribution offer for significant wage adjustments in recent years. Participants REM they calculated a range of 10.9% to 11% of each in the economy this year.
However, they estimate it deceleration After recomposing the business, this will only increase it by 2.8% in Q4 2020 and will still be average in Q1 2021, where the improvement is less than 1 point.
Activity will allow growth Gross domestic product (GDP) 4.8% in 2021, although it will lose strength in 2022, reaching 2.5%.
Respectfully to forin the projection it is estimated to close at $ 83 for the year and to reach $ 126.45 by the end of 2021, showing the nominal devaluation of the peso at 38.6% this year and 52.3% next year.