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Private research has shown that the lowest decline in GDP in October was not maintained in November



It is true that in the measurement of the consultant Orlando Ferreres y Asociados, the statistical effect of comparison with the second highest peak of activity in over 10 years had a decisive impact.

"The result of the eleventh month was strongly conditioned by
industrial dynamics, a segment of activity, which fell by over 9%. Next a decrease in the commercial category is visible (decreased by 10.8% compared to November 2017), which was mainly due to the decrease in its warehouse, which suffers not only on lower levels of domestic production, but also lower income from imports, "say private research economists.

These two elements, which can not be compensated by the initial activation of the agricultural sector, have explained that commercial activity belongs to the three most recessive sectors in November.

On the opposite end, though with very modest increases were located in agriculture, financial activity and mining industry; and practically all branches of public and private services and public administration have stagnated at the level of the previous year.

The persistence of high interest rates caused by the tight monetary policy of the Central Bank, together with the limited ability of companies to agree wage increases so as not to affect the employment level in their facilities, would mean that December will also close with a negative sign, though with a clearly heterogeneous image, which was observed in November, which was also reflected in the study of job expectations at the National Secretariat for Employment.


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