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Questionnaire: people would vote for an alternative to the break, but no candidate convinced – 12/24/2018



In the face of the presidential election next year, Argentina's policy is rare. According to various measurements, many people with enough cracks are willing to vote for an alternative. But when in the options palette they give names to this third variant, enthusiasm is weakened. This trend is confirmed in new national survey what he agreed to ClarinThat's from consultant Gustavo Córdoba & Asociados.

The work includes a review 1200 cases across the country and is presented with a margin of error of +/- 2.83%. Questions were collected between 18 and 21 December. Gustavo Córdoba is a consultant who did most of his work in a province that suits his name. He worked for local authorities as well as for peronists from other provinces. In the last weeks there has been a version that joins the team of Sergio Massa, but the consultant denied this newspaper.

In November, the monthly work done by the interviewer surprised us because it was so one of those who put Cristina Kirchner on a higher levelIn the December poll, despite the fact that in the first round, and even in secret ballots, he holds the previous president over Mauricio Macri, the most striking part of the survey may be deepening the crackinessbut still without a candidate to use it.

The last measurement includes A 27-page reports and it starts with a series of data that has been considered for over a year. Thus, for example, this coincides with other studies that show a slight rebound in economic expectations: those who think that the country will be "worse" in the course of the year will fall from 68.4% to 65.5%, and those who they believe this will be a "better" increase from 23.5% to 31%.

But the image of the president is falling again: positive ranges from 42.3% to 36.9%, and negative – from 54.6% to 59.9%. Cristina's image also gets worseand perhaps this is the first indication – at least in the work of Gustaw Kordoba – of fatigue in Kirchnerism and Change: the former president has 54.3% negative and 43.8% positive.

But when he goes to the leaders of the federal PJ, Massa also sees his image fall – he appears from 64.1% of negative and 25.2% positive. There is only a reflection of Salty Juan Manuel Urtubey, although still with a high level of ignorance or people who do not want to comment on it: between the two things exceeds 24%.

Election numbers

Gustavo Córdoba presents electoral issues from the middle of the report. In the case of general questions, some originals; and other very specific ones. The first application? "One of the most interesting axes is to verify the tendency to change government or ensure continuity. 55% of Argentines say they will vote for change in 2019, and 30% say they will vote to ensure the continuity of the government, Mauricio Macri. Among those who vote for change, the main motives are a change in economic direction and a better life. Among the continuators, it is important to give him another chance and that populism will not return. "

Then, the willingness of consulted people to choose alternatives is checked. "Would you vote for the president for a space that is not Cambiemos or Kirchner?"he asks an interviewer. 45.7% say yes"This is, at our option, a measure disappointment of Argentines regarding his current political representation. Almost half of the Argentinians say they can vote for a different option than those currently under dispute in 2019. "

This study returns later on satiety: "the electoral context has still not been resolved, but we can verify that the current trends are more for rejection than for political or ideological acceptance "In this sense, there are more people who manifest themselves as "anticambiemos" (52.5%) than "anti-Peronistas" (41.4%).

Again about the most specific electoral numbers, in this case in the vote for space, it seems contradiction with the third variantAlthough slightly in relation to November, between Unidad Ciudadana and Cambiemos, the majority still join: 64.9 points (33.5% for K and 31.4% for pro-government). Federal Peronism third, but only 12.8%. Although in the previous measurement, this PJ dialogueist did not reach 7 points, he is still far from the position above.

When the question is asked directly by the candidate, Cristina stays over Macri. Others? Urtubey barely exceeds two digits (10.4%) and Massa, 5 points (5.2%)On the other hand, other surveys are forwarded to the leader of Renovador's Front over the Governor of Salty, though always with a small number. The rest of the variations (economist José Luis Espert, radical Ricardo Alfonsín, Alfredo Olmedo or Néstor Pitrola) vary from 1 to 5 points.

This paradox in the search for the "third candidate" and the small acceptance currently offered is what fuels the persistence of some of the Peronists – as well as socialists such as the governor of Santa Fe, Miguel Lifschitz – in to push the consensusjust like the former Minister of Economy, Roberto Lavagna.


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