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Should I buy Tesla at the end of the year?



Cars

Published in December 31, 2018
Paul Fosse

December 31, 2018 by Paul Fosse


The short general answer to the question in the title is "yes". I bought my model 3 months ago and I love it. You can read more about this in my author's archives. But there are other issues to consider and people have different factors to consider. Read about the nuances and a few considerations about Tesla.

Aiden Weller, 6, Future Tesla Owner

Every week, we think Tesla's Model 3 cars would end this week. But the company continued production and apparently worked on the backlog several weeks ago. People who still have reservations are divided into three categories:

  1. They are waiting for a cheaper car ($ 35,000) or for a lease that will be offered on the current model 3.
  2. They are part of a world where model 3 can not be obtained. It is everywhere except in the United States and Canada.
  3. They changed their mind or thought they could not buy a car right now.

So even though Tesla receives several thousand new orders every week from new people that are discovering Model 3, it is not enough to sell an automaker, even though the US federal tax credit is half the lower price for Tesla buyers within 2 days to focus the mind of people.

David Baldauf

Availability of cars

Although I expected Tesla to sell her equipment this week, it seems that availability has not changed much from what I found last week. Local sales offices inform me that Tesla has a group of cars ready to be ordered and delivered on the same day, as long as I can be somewhat flexible in terms of options available.

I checked with Tesla in Tampa, St. Louis and Denver. Cars sell quickly, but not quickly enough to sell them. Usually I send 2 or 3 links to friends, which help me decide which products to buy, and when I check the links a few days later, they are usually dead (which in my opinion means the car is sold). When I call the seller and ask for more links, you will find 2 or 3 cars that meet the specifications I am asking for.

I assume that they either have a large equipment they have worked through or are able to top up at least as quickly as they sell. After lowering the tax credit on Tuesday, although I know they will start to spend a significant part of production on Europe and China, they will not want sales to drop too much in the US, so I think that means they will pull one or more more. " demand lever ".

Kevin Becker, model 3 on the track

Demand levers

In October, we published a great article on the ways Tesla can increase the demand for its cars. Some of these levers have already been pulled out, such as the geographical extension and the new Mid Range battery pack. Others, such as tax credit matching, free top-up for long periods of time and free wall chargers are possible, but will lower gross margins when they are determined to remain viable.

Many people in the US would be delighted that the Standard Range battery is now available (and they did a good job keeping the Mid Range battery secret until it was released), but the site still claims the standard battery is 4 to 6 months old. Please note that 4 months ago the page has been off for 6 to 9 months, so I think it is unlikely that this week will open orders for the Standard Range battery. In addition, it was only a month since Elon Musk sent an e-mail to all employees, saying that it would cost $ 38,000 to build a $ 35,000 car, and asked these employees to help them find a way to remove cents from each 10,000 parts and processes needed to connect model 3.

Captured on 12/29/2018

I assume that leasing and / or subscriptions are the best way for Tesla to lower the total monthly cost for new owners without taking the margin that other options have. It's also exactly 7 months since Elon predicted that we will have Leasing in 6 to 9 months. The reason he did not offer it was cash flow (which was negative 6 months ago). Cash flow has improved significantly, so it should not be a serious problem anymore.

Proposal

Ryen Ae

So what is the answer to the question I asked in the title of this article? Are you buying now or are you waiting to see what Tesla will announce in 2019?

Of course, I can not tell you that. To get the answer, you have to look into yourself.

If you are the person taking the risk (I am) and / or I am not happy with the current elections (I think that the current elections are great), waiting makes sense. I do not know what lever of Tesla demand will be pulling, but I am sure that they will do something to sweeten the deal after lowering the tax credit on January 1. My guess is that Tesla will offer a lease or find a way to lower the price by several thousand dollars to low $ 40,000.

On the other hand, if you value security and hate surprises, and you are satisfied with the available cars, there is no reason not to close in the big interest and get more tax breaks!

You can use my Tesla referral link to get up to 9 months of free top-up (6 months if I tested the car with Tesla) on Model S, Model X or Model 3. Here's the code: https: // ts. la / paul92237


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tags: Real estate tax rebate, Tesla, Tesla Model 3


about the author

Paul Fosse I am a software engineer for over 30 years, I work on EDI software first and recently develop data warehouse systems in the telecommunications and medical industries. On the way, I also had the opportunity to help in starting a consulting company and manage a portfolio for several investment funds. In 2010, I became interested in electric cars because gas was more and more expensive. In 2015, I started reading CleanTechnica and became interested in solar energy, mainly because it posed a threat to my investments in crude oil and natural gas in my investment funds. Investor Tesla. Tesla referral code: https://ts.la/paul92237




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