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The unbelievable dream of Bitcoin Maximilian




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Maximum bitcoins never give up. Bitcoin's price dropped from over 19,000 USD a year ago to below 4,000 USD today and there is no indication that the price will increase in the near future. But the maximalists do not care about it. They are in this in the long run. Their faith? In the end, Bitcoin will replace all the money spent by the government. So all they have to do is HODL for large amounts of the future world currency and they will become the next generation of fantastically rich elites. Or they think so.

The bitcoin token is located next to George Washington's image on one dollar in the US. & Nbsp; & nbsp; Photographer: Chris Ratcliffe / Bloomberg& Copy; 2018 Bloomberg Finance LP

Of course, what we want "Bitcoin" is questioned. The Bitcoin community has for a long time resisted hardcopy, but eventually Bitcoin was forked, creating Bitcoin Cash, whose supporters claimed it was "real Bitcoin" as defined in Satoshi Nakamoto & # 39; s original white paper. Bitcoiners who clung to "one true faith" strongly expected that Bitcoin Cash would die. But if there is one thing that has been taught us by the cryptocut of the last two years, old coins do not die. Both the new chain and the old one were still mined, often by the same miners, who rather enjoyed the arbitrage possibilities created by the two versions of the same coin. The exchange eventually calculated both versions of Bitcoin. Bitcoin Cash has never been worth as much as Bitcoin, but it certainly has not died.

The old coins are also forked. Bitcoin is now forked many times. Hard forks not only create new coins, but also create new tribes: each version of Bitcoin has its own tribe of zealous followers. We now have multiplying tribes of ardent bitcoiners, each of whom claims that its Bitcoin version is "real bitcoin". Some of them seem to be willing to fight to their deaths to defend their coins too: recent drops in prices have been partly blamed for "hash war"Between the two versions of Bitcoin Cash.

What would replace the currency issued by the government is not exactly clear. However, most Bitcoin maximalists are supporters of the Bitcoin version, which remained after the first hard fork, now known as Bitcoin Core or simply "Bitcoin" (BTC). It is also sometimes called "digital gold". This is a version which, according to the maximalists, will become the basic unit of account for the new global payment system, which will eventually replace all currencies issued by the government.

Here is the Bitcoin magazine predicting what will be in the historical books of the future:

Tweoin Magazine tweetTwitter

Bitcoin maximalist philosophy in one tweet. However, this is the last of a series of tweets, so to understand the context, we need to look at other tweets.

The first tweet in the series concerns This article with Time magazine. The article proves that for about 4 billion people around the world, Bitcoin can be a useful way to protect its wealth from predatory governments and hyperinflation. "For people living under authoritarian rule," he says, "Bitcoin can be a valuable financial tool as a censor-proof medium of exchange." He emphasizes four countries:

  • Venezuela, whose collapsing economy is being overseen by an increasingly authoritarian government. Exchange rate control failed, what as I predicted four years ago, caused hyperinflation. His currency, bolivar, is currently hyperinflation at the rate of over a million percent annually;
  • Zimbabwe, which has a long history of political corruption, economic madness and hyperinflation. Its citizens will use any currency other than the official currency of the country, the Zimbabwean dollar;
  • Russia, which has a predatory government and is subject to international sanctions, which makes it difficult for citizens to remove money from the country;
  • China, which has authoritarian government and capital control.

Times the article is well-founded and justified. There are very good reasons why people in these countries, as well as some others, use Bitcoin as an alternative to the currency issued by the government, although I personally doubt that Bitcoin is the main currency in any of these countries. But nowhere in this article is there Time they suggest that Bitcoin can replace currencies issued by the government for anyone other than four billion, which is just over half the world's population and disproportionately concentrated in China. So how did this lead to the claim of Bitcoin Magazine that all currencies issued by the government would eventually disappear?

Sending a hyperlink to Times Adam Back said that he discusses the use of Bitcoin to protect against government "non-cash and negative politicians". But it's not like that. Times the article deals with authoritarian rule and economic affairs, and not democratically elected governments in stable developed countries in which negative rates are applied to counteract deflation and recession. & nbsp; It is true that he warns of the dangers of a non-cash society, and in this context he briefly mentions Sweden. But he does not even mention negative rates, which are currently used not only by Sweden, but also by the euro zone, Switzerland and Japan.

It seems that Adam Back was deliberately misleading Times an article promoting bitcoin as an alternative to currencies issued by the government in stable Western democracies. Samson Mow, a paid apologist for Bitcoin Core, went on. According to him, over four billion people can not trust their governments:

Tweet Samson MowTwitter

The total world population is only around 7.7 billion. Mow in effect says that you can not trust any government in the world. This is full of libertarian thinking, "destroy the state."

Hence, there is only a short step to "disappearance of all currencies issued by the government." However, not only the currencies issued by the government would disappear. After all, if no one trusts the government, a democratic government can not exist. In the new, bold world of Bitcoin Magazine, democratically elected governments would also disappear, probably replaced by technological superstructures that automatically execute code written by incomprehensible elites, blind and deaf to the terrible consequences of using rigid rules in the chaotic lives of real people. We've come too far this way. The revival of nationalism throughout the world is a reaction to the dominance of unelected, incomprehensible, supranational elites. Replacing one set of the second elite is not a solution.

Fortunately, the terrible forecast of Bitcoin Magazine may never come. History is strewn with attempts to replace national currencies with undemocratic and unpredictable international currencies. All of them have failed, except (so far) the euro and its African branch, the CFA franc (although the CFA franc is subject to increasing political pressure due to its colonial roots). There is no particular reason why Bitcoin should be different, or Euro, for that matter. I predict that future historical books will contain interesting discussions about the reasons why some crazy people thought they could replace the currencies issued by the government and why they failed.

Unfortunately, it will not be the last such attempt. People have short memories and long beliefs; ideological belief in the currency of one world has proved extremely resilient despite overwhelming historical evidence that transnational currencies are becoming national currencies (e.g., the US dollar and the British pound) or are finally torn apart by powerful political and economic forces.

But maybe Bitcoin has something that will teach us & nbsp; – if we can listen. The Bitcoin fork showed beyond reasonable doubt that currency is essentially an expression of tribal identity. This is true no matter who or what causes it. Like the different versions of Bitcoin, they have their own "tribes", just like state currencies. If the government issues currency and people accept it, the currency expresses its national identity. History shows us that currencies issued by governments that have lost all credibility to their own people fail – in fact, Venezuela shows us right now. Similarly, currencies that are not related to stable tribal identity; this is because the currencies of countries that lose the war, often hyperflflation. The reason why we have many versions of Bitcoin is that someone still believes in each of these versions. Bitcoin has at least a tribal identity or twenty. But this is not exactly stable, right?

If the currencies are essentially tribal, how can Bitcoin become a "new gold standard", like the dream of the maximum? People do not kindly try other tribes to eliminate their tribal symbols and impose them on other tribes. They must be convinced and not forced. At present, Bitcoin maxisers can not even convince other Bitcoiners to handle their coins. The idea that they could convince all people in the world to throw away their tribal currencies and accept their version of Bitcoin is ridiculous. When is the next fork next to you?

Bitcoin showed us the tribal character of currencies. To this end, we should be grateful. But Bitcoin becomes the only real currency for the whole world? No it is not possible.

& nbsp;

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Maximum bitcoins never give up. Bitcoin's price dropped from over 19,000 USD a year ago to below 4,000 USD today and there is no indication that the price will increase in the near future. But the maximalists do not care about it. They are in this in the long run. Their faith? In the end, Bitcoin will replace all the money spent by the government. So all they have to do is HODL for large amounts of the future world currency and they will become the next generation of fantastically rich elites. Or they think so.

The bitcoin token is located next to the image of George & # 4; Washington on one US dollar. Photographer: Chris Ratcliffe / Bloomberg© 2018 Bloomberg Finance LP

Of course, what we understand by "Bitcoin" is questioned. The Bitcoin community has for a long time resisted hardcopy, but eventually Bitcoin was forked, creating Bitcoin Cash, whose supporters claimed it was "real Bitcoin" as defined in the original white book Satoshi Nakamoto. Bitcoiners who clung to "one true faith" strongly expected that Bitcoin Cash would die. But if there is one thing that has been taught us by the cryptocut of the last two years, old coins do not die. Both the new chain and the old one were still mined, often by the same miners, who rather enjoyed the arbitrage possibilities created by the two versions of the same coin. The exchange eventually calculated both versions of Bitcoin. Bitcoin Cash has never been worth as much as Bitcoin, but it certainly has not died.

The old coins are also forked. Bitcoin has forked many times. Hard forks not only create new coins, but also create new tribes: each version of Bitcoin has its own tribe of zealous followers. We now have multiplying tribes of ardent bitcoiners, each of whom claims that its Bitcoin version is "real bitcoin". Some of them seem to be willing to fight to their deaths to defend their coins: recent price drops have been partially blamed for the "hash war" between the two versions of Bitcoin Cash.

What would replace the currency issued by the government is not exactly clear. However, most Bitcoin maximalists are supporters of the Bitcoin version, which remained after the first hard fork, now known as Bitcoin Core or simply "Bitcoin" (BTC). It is also sometimes called "digital gold". This is a version which, according to the maximalists, will become the basic unit of account for the new global payment system, which will eventually replace all currencies issued by the government.

Here is the Bitcoin magazine predicting what will be in the historical books of the future:

Tweoin Magazine tweetTwitter

Bitcoin maximalist philosophy in one tweet. However, this is the last of a series of tweets, so to understand the context, we need to look at other tweets.

The first tweet in the series concerns this article from Time magazine. The article proves that for about 4 billion people around the world, Bitcoin can be a useful way to protect its wealth from predatory governments and hyperinflation. "For people living under authoritarian rule," he says, "Bitcoin can be a valuable financial tool as a censor-proof medium of exchange." He emphasizes four countries:

  • Venezuela, whose collapsing economy is being overseen by an increasingly authoritarian government. Exchange rate control failed, which, as I predicted four years ago, caused hyperinflation. His currency, bolivar, is currently hyperinflation at the rate of over a million percent annually;
  • Zimbabwe, which has a long history of political corruption, economic madness and hyperinflation. Its citizens will use any currency other than the official currency of the country, the Zimbabwean dollar;
  • Russia, which has a predatory government and is subject to international sanctions, which makes it difficult for citizens to remove money from the country;
  • China, which has authoritarian government and capital control.

Times the article is well-founded and justified. There are very good reasons why people in these countries, as well as some others, use Bitcoin as an alternative to the currency issued by the government, although I personally doubt that Bitcoin is the main currency in any of these countries. But nowhere in this article is there Time they suggest that Bitcoin can replace currencies issued by the government for anyone other than four billion, which is just over half the world's population and disproportionately concentrated in China. So how did this lead to the claim of Bitcoin Magazine that all currencies issued by the government would eventually disappear?

Sending a hyperlink to Times Adam Back said that he discusses the use of Bitcoin to protect against government "non-cash and negative politicians". But it's not like that. Times The article deals with authoritarian rule and economic affairs, not democratically elected governments in stable developed countries using negative rates to counteract deflation and recession. It is true that he warns of the dangers of a non-cash society and in this context he briefly mentions Sweden. But he does not even mention negative rates, which are currently used not only by Sweden, but also by the euro zone, Switzerland and Japan.

It seems that Adam Back was deliberately misleading Times an article promoting bitcoin as an alternative to currencies issued by the government in stable Western democracies. Samson Mow, a paid apologist for Bitcoin Core, went on. According to him, over four billion people can not trust their governments:

The total world population is only around 7.7 billion. Mow in effect says that you can not trust any government in the world. This is full of libertarian thinking, "destroy the state."

Hence, there is only a short step to "disappearance of all currencies issued by the government." However, not only the currencies issued by the government would disappear. After all, if no one trusts the government, a democratic government can not exist. In the new, bold world of Bitcoin Magazine, democratically elected governments would also disappear, probably replaced by technological superstructures that automatically execute code written by incomprehensible elites, blind and deaf to the terrible consequences of using rigid rules in the chaotic lives of real people. We've come too far this way. The revival of nationalism throughout the world is a reaction to the dominance of unelected, incomprehensible, supranational elites. Replacing one set of the second elite is not a solution.

Fortunately, the terrible forecast of Bitcoin Magazine may never come. History is strewn with attempts to replace national currencies with undemocratic and unpredictable international currencies. All of them have failed, except (so far) the euro and its African branch, the CFA franc (although the CFA franc is subject to increasing political pressure due to its colonial roots). There is no particular reason why Bitcoin should be different, or Euro, for that matter. I predict that future historical books will contain interesting discussions about the reasons why some crazy people thought they could replace the currencies issued by the government and why they failed.

Unfortunately, it will not be the last such attempt. People have short memories and long beliefs; ideological belief in the currency of one world has proved extremely resilient despite overwhelming historical evidence that transnational currencies are becoming national currencies (e.g., the US dollar and the British pound) or are finally torn apart by powerful political and economic forces.

But maybe Bitcoin has something to teach us – if we can listen. The Bitcoin fork showed beyond reasonable doubt that currency is essentially an expression of tribal identity. This is true no matter who or what causes it. Like the different versions of Bitcoin, they have their own "tribes", just like state currencies. If the government issues currency and people accept it, the currency expresses its national identity. History shows us that currencies issued by governments that have lost all credibility to their own people fail – in fact, Venezuela shows us right now. Similarly, currencies that are not related to stable tribal identity; this is because the currencies of countries that lose the war, often hyperflflation. The reason why we have many versions of Bitcoin is that someone still believes in each of these versions. Bitcoin has at least a tribal identity or twenty. But this is not exactly stable, right?

If currencies are essentially tribal, how can Bitcoin become the "new gold standard", how do maximalists dream? People do not kindly try other tribes to eliminate their tribal symbols and impose them on other tribes. They must be convinced and not forced. At present, Bitcoin maxisers can not even convince other Bitcoiners to handle their coins. The idea that they could convince all people in the world to throw away their tribal currencies and accept their version of Bitcoin is ridiculous. When is the next fork next to you?

Bitcoin showed us the tribal character of currencies. To this end, we should be grateful. But Bitcoin becomes the only real currency for the whole world? No it is not possible.


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