Original title: The first quarter of consumption for the spring festival interrupted the trillions of tourist consumption from "uniting" to "the summit"
Our reporter Xia Xutian Intern Ma Yusha Feng Yulin Beijing Report
The year is in spring. As the traditional peak of the consumer season, the efficiency of gastronomy and tourism during the Golden Week Spring Festival is often an important moment to gain insight into the national consumer trends of the new year. According to data on the consumption of the spring festival, the Chinese consumer market has undergone an imitative consumption stage and is entering a new stage of personalized and diversified consumption, paying more attention to the quality and experience of consumers.
Where are your money spent for the spring festival? According to the Ministry of Commerce, from New Year's Eve to the sixth day of the first month (February 4 to 10), domestic retail and food businesses achieved sales for the first time, reaching a trillion, reaching 100.5 billion yuan, but the rate of growth appeared for the first time since many years. Increase by one digit, increase by 8.5% year on year.
The total number of national tourist receptions during the spring holiday was 415 million person-days, 7.6% year-on-year, tourism revenues amounted to 513.9 billion yuan, an increase of 8.2% year-on-year. Tourist traffic and the growth rate of the spring festival also dropped to one digit.
The decline in the growth rate of retail catering and tourism during the spring festival is highly consistent with the slowdown in the entire consumer market. In 2018, total retail sales of consumer goods in China increased by 9% year-on-year and the growth rate fell to a low level since 2002.
On the one hand, this decline is due to increased pressure on economic decline, increased household leverage and increased income uncertainty, and on the other hand, the normalization of China from the consumption of goods to the consumption of goods and services. The data is subject to fluctuations.
Since last year, the gradual growth in the consumption of cars and housing products was weak, directly reducing the results of year-round consumption. At the beginning of the new year, along with the announcement of a series of policy measures, such as "Implementing supply optimization to promote sustainable consumption growth and promoting the creation of a strong internal market", many consumer promotion trends are on their way.
A new consumer appears
According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Commerce, during the Spring Holidays of the Golden Week, sales of retail and food businesses across the country reached about 100.5 billion yuan, breaking the billion of the yuan for the first time, an increase of 8.5% in the golden year 2018.
At a press conference of the Ministry of Trade on February 12, Wang Bin, deputy director of the Marketing Department of the Ministry of Commerce, noted that during the spring festival the domestic commodity market maintained steady and rapid growth, and traditional consumption such as buying a new year of food, eating New Year's Eve and visiting temple fairs , it flourished. Fire: annual festival gifts, traditional food, emerging electronic products, increased sales of local products is fast, online consumption, tailored consumption, consumption of experience, intelligent consumption and other new consumer traits. This provided a solid basis for a stable and rapid development of the consumer market in the first quarter, and even throughout the year.
Zhao Ping, director of the Department of International Trade Research at the Chinese Council for the Promotion of International Trade, told the 21st Century Business Herald that the biggest consumer market event this year is the improvement of consumer quality. On the one hand, traditional consumption with traditional family culture and the unification culture as a core maintains rapid growth and quality improvement, on the other hand new products with high technology, high quality and greenery are sold as the core during the New Year, and the Internet era is new. The pattern of consumption also constantly exerts power.
Another attraction is line and line resonance. Shopping centers, points of sale and other functions in shopping, gastronomy, entertainment and other new business formats are preferred by consumers, the main e-commerce platforms are in line with the Spring Festival, sales of the e-commerce platform during the Spring Festival increased by about 40%.
Zhao Ping pointed out that in the past, the Spring Festival consumer market was the main battlefield, online store during spring holidays and the resulting express delivery, however this year many e-commerce platforms, especially self-serviced goods, do not fight during the spring festival, Express holiday logistics services. Capacity is also gradually catching up, and e-commerce sales are growing rapidly.
During the Spring Festival, experimental consumption, such as leisure travel, movie watching and folklore classes is becoming more and more popular.
In the opinion of Zhao Ping, the experience of consumer spending during the spring festival is the result of both sides of the demand and supply. On the one hand, after the citizens meet the needs of material life, the need for spiritual life increases, and during the spring holiday the demand for cultural products increases, on the other hand, the consumption of culture is getting better. Supply.
It is worth noting that from the point of view of the growth rate, the consumption of multiple consumption during the Spring Festival fell from the double-digit growth in previous years to single-digit growth.
In addition to trade and catering data, tourism data also returned to single-digit growth. During the spring holiday in 2019, the number of national tourist receptions increased by 7.6% year-on-year, and the growth rate of passenger traffic during the spring festival fell to ten digits for the first time in ten years.
Zhao Ping said that large-scale cooling in the north has had some impact on short-term tourism, and more importantly, tourism consumption is changing from summer concentration to normal consumption.
"The development of tourism over the past two years has been particularly rapid, raising the overall base and decreasing the annual growth rate. From the opening of high-speed railways and expressways, traffic has become very convenient in a short time, thus stimulating human travel needs. convenience has become a normal state, and travel is gradually becoming a daily behavior, not a holiday demand. "Domestic tourism is gradually moving from a period of rapid growth to a mature period."
On the other hand, she said that based on real people's experience, a concentrated large-scale trip during the Golden Spring festival often has poor real travel experience because annual holidays are becoming more and more popular, people who have the opportunity to travel often avoid expeditions as part of the Golden Week. This shows that the consumer concept is more rational.
"The Chinese consumer market has undergone a phase of imitative wave consumption and is entering a new phase of personalized and diversified consumption, paying more attention to consumer quality and experience."
Gradual weakness in car consumption
In the opinion of Zhao Ping, the decline in the growth rate of retail catering and tourism during the spring festival coincides with the slowing down of the entire consumer market. "In the context of a certain pressure to lower the economy and certain uncertainty in resident income, there may be some compression in the consumer sector with relatively high flexibility in high-end gastronomy and tourism."
In 2018, total retail sales of consumer goods in China increased by 9% year-on-year and the growth rate fell to a low level since 2002.
Dong Chao, director of the Trade and Consumption Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, told the 21-year business report that the reason for poor consumption last year was that the pressure to lower the economy was growing, and economic growth was weak, and on the other hand, the leverage of Chinese residents. The emphasis on mortgage loans increased, the increase in disposable income slowed down, and the continued slowdown in the capital market led to a decrease in the ability to pay.
He stressed that in recent years, the growth rate of large consumer goods such as cars slowed down and even followed a negative growth, which directly slowed the rate of consumption growth in the previous year.
At a press conference of the Ministry of Trade on February 12, Wang Bin said that due to the impact of many factors in the country and abroad, especially on the consumption of certain goods related to motorization and housing, there was a period of no growth and the growth rate of consumption in 2018 was 2017 The drop by 1.2 percentage points indicates that there are still many variables in the process of consumption development and the dangers coexist.
He pointed out that car consumption accounts for a very large part of society (over a quarter), the so-called "sudden increase is weak" because although the growth rate of new car sales in the car dropped by 2.8 percentage points in 2018. Total consumption of new cars cars amounted to over 2,800. Ten thousand vehicles took first place in the world. The number of cars per 100 households in the city increased from 21.5 in 2013 to 40.
Wang Bin said that in comparison with developed countries, the demand for car consumption is still very high. According to a comparable caliber, the number of Chinese cars in 2000 is 170 in 2018. Developed countries such as the United States can reach around 800 vehicles, and developed countries such as Europe and Japan have between 500 and 600 vehicles.
Zhang Jinhua, secretary general of the China Automotive Engineering Society, told a business report from the 21st century that the exit from preferential tax policy on purchases had some impact on the automotive market last year, and tax breaks in 2017 caused an early release from car consumption, exceeding the limit in 2018. Sales, lack of consumer confidence and expected tariff cuts may also force consumers to adopt the expected approach to buying cars.
He stressed that although the car market in China recorded a negative growth last year, this is not a downward trend – from the development stage the Chinese automotive market still has much to do.
"At present, the number of Chinese cars has not reached the world average of 180-200 vehicles, and the building area is still very large: China has exceeded the global average in recent years, it is expected to reach 300 vehicles, about 197 million vehicles, which means that Car ownership in China has doubled to 400 million. "
Qian Keming, deputy minister of the Ministry of Commerce, said at a press conference that consumption statistics were the main statistics for consumption: last year, the service consumption of residents accounted for 49.5% of total consumer spending. Service consumption has risen very rapidly in recent years and opens up new blue ocean.
Dong Chao said that with the improvement of the economic level, the general consumption tendency is the transition from the consumption of goods to the consumption of services. "The lower the level of economic development, the greater the share of consumption of goods, and the percentage of service consumption at the post-industrial stage." In fact, the growth in consumption of goods is limited, but the demand for services is often unlimited and the other has more opportunities for growth. also the dominant force in Chinese consumption growth. "
Wang Bin said that since the end of last year, China has intensively introduced a number of policies of steady consumption growth, for example, increasing wages of people from less-developed areas and reducing taxes and charges through transfer payments will help increase consumption. .
Impatiently for 2019, Wang Bin said the consumer market is under pressure, and the increase in consumption is likely to be slower. But China has a large market of 1.4 billion people, including 400 million middle-income groups that have many needs for modernization.
"The Chinese consumer market has enormous potential, strong resilience, vitality and good growth, which is the biggest advantage of Chinese consumption in maintaining long-term stable development," he said.