In general, mid-term elections in the United States are generally not as important as presidential elections and rather low participation.
But this Tuesday, when all members of the House of Representatives are elected, 35 seats in the Senate and the majority of governors in the country, both in the life or death of both parties. And in the center, as happened in the past two years, President Donald Trump.
In fact, most experts agree that the election day will be a referendum on its governance, which can determine what remains of the White House mandate.
The expectation is such at least 25 million Americans voted early and is expected this week to lift the list of attendance at this type of election. And that bets can not be higher.
At the moment, Republicans govern both the House of Representatives (435 seats 237) and the Senate (51 seats out of 100) and the majority of governors of the country (33 of the 50 states).
For Trump, it is vital to preserve these majority, since this is not just a matter of government control but of political survival itself: the Democrat-controlled congress may become nightmares for the president because it blocks all of its agenda and launches countless inquiries and officials.
First of all, for example, such a scenario would mean the end of the wall promised by Mexican border-building, its efforts to completely eliminate healthcare reform when Barack Obama was in office and banned. It is necessary to experiment with modifying and restricting the country's immigration system.
For his opponents this Tuesday election is almost a unique opportunity to put a president in the middle, who say they divide the country into two countries, and are involved in both domestic and international defeat.
By September this year, this was what many voters had predicted because the votes showed that the vote intentions 15 Democrats.
More than enough to guarantee the victory in the house and even dream of victory in the Senate where the picture is not favorable as the Democratic Party defends 26 (many in the states where Trump won 2016) and Republicans are only 9.
Trump took on himself to ruin these benefits with his flaming rhetoric and stance
In fact, he spoke of the "blue wave" about the color of American Democrats. UU.
Though it is normal for a party in power to lose seats in this type of election, Trump and the Republican's darker outlook have become more apparent, because in practice they have achieved everything: the lowest unemployment rate (3.7 per cent), the ever-growing economy and the tax cuts that are always in the pocket of voters in 50 years.
"But Trump," says Jennifer Rubin, a political scientist, "has herself taken to ruin these benefits with her flaming rhetoric and extreme positions."
This scenario, however, began to change the struggle with which both sides fought during the ratification process for Brett Kavanaugh's Supreme Court, accused of sexually harassing several women.
Although initially they thought this would have an impact on the Republicans, he eventually motivated the party's base. In addition, Trump's popularity jumped unexpectedly, rising from less than 38 percent to nearly 45.
Since then, opinion polls have shown that competition has risen. The difference in the vote intentions, according to Gallup, has dropped to less than 10 points, and the democratic conquest of the senate is very difficult, if not impossible.
"We do not think the Democrats are losing their home, they still have their favorites and have a 70 or 75 percent chance of winning." We see that the majority will be close. "Senator no longer seems to be trying," says David Wasserman, It works in a report, an organization specializing in this type of election calculation.
Not that we believe that Democrats lose the house. They still have their favorites and have a 70 or 75 percent chance to dominate
In other words, the likely outcome of a shared congress. Which ends Trump's controversial proposals, and torpedoes the tests, but leaves the door open to continue strengthening the conservative judges – the Senate is doing.
Over the past two weeks, there are explosive news that can still change the course of the results. On the one hand, Trump's sponsor sending bomb packets to the main democratic leaders, another who murdered 11 Jews in a Pittsburgh congregation, and a third of what Afro-Americans fired had terrified the country, and many people showed Trump. as responsible for the firesign rhetoric that he attacks against his rivals.
For its part, the president revived the anti-immigrant speech, which gave such good results in the 2016 elections to convince its base to get to the polls.
This week, more than 5,000 troops sent to the Mexican border to stop the caravan of immigrants from Honduras and describes it as a group of intruders, including Middle Eastern criminals and even terrorists.
A very toxic environment that is likely to get even worse if the results of the elections are known, since every eye is in the background in the 2020 elections when Trump re-elect and check it at the congress.
Sergio Gómez Maseri
El Tiempo correspondent
On Twitter @ sergom68