China's great momentum is back: the whole world pays for one man for error

Over the past 40 years, China has achieved progress. Between 1978 and 2013, the country's economy grew by an average of 10 percent. annually, so the average adult income increased by 10 times. This growth contributed around 800 million. people from poverty and 85% in the country. the decline in infant mortality and life expectancy increased by 11 years, writes Johnathan Tepperman in foreign policy.

The most striking thing is that Chinese leadership has committed a repressive policy, which is extremely difficult to evaluate from historical and political theories. Not surprisingly, Orwell Schell, who deals with China's development, describes this record as "one of the most amazing miracles of world history in economic development."

These impressive, supposed supernatural results of China are extremely tragic due to the current events in the country – and worrying.

To prepare for the fight against corruption, President Xi Jingping regularly eliminates virtually any reforms that have sustained China's sustained growth over the past four decades.

Extremely successful, albeit with a faulty system, it changes the whole cult of personality, focusing only on providing more energy than Chinese leaders since Mao Ce-tong.

In the short term China's approach to Xi Jingping's methods may seem less corrupt and more stable.

But by overthrowing the majority of fraud mechanisms, Xi Jingping threatens the country's achievements and China becomes another police state (bigger, more open
North Korean prototype): ineffective, unstable and warlike. Not only about 1.4 billion should worry about it. Chinese citizens, but for all of us.

To understand why a personal campaign for the creation of the Xi Jinping Empire is so dangerous, we must first understand why China has long been an exceptional one.

The majority of modern, living and tyrannical, and single-member states have many common features. The authorities are in the hands of several people. In order to maintain power, these individuals suppress the opposition's ideas and their leadership is based on harassment.

And bureaucrats and citizens live in fear, so do not scratch the hair to hate their leaders. Nobody tells the truth, especially the one that drives the leaders towards unfavorable light. For this reason, tyrants who have the ego
the constant praise from the affectionate subordinates are becoming more and more separate from reality and from the rest of the world (for example, such a tyrant may be Kim Jong Un, Bashar al-Assad or Robert Mugabe) and ultimately rely on their instincts and instincts because you do not know what's happening in the country . The effect of such ignorance on the country
domestic and foreign policy is catastrophic.

About 35 years ago, after the death of Mao Ce-tung and Deng Xiaoping, reforms began at the end of the '80s, when Xi Jingping came to power in 2012, China managed to avoid the majority of the dangers and denying the laws of political mediocrity. we
researchers are called "adaptive authoritarian regimes".

Officially, it remained a Communist country, China took over most of the market capitalism and many other liberalizing reforms.

Of course, the old system remained very oppressive (remember the slaughter of the Tiananmen Square) and is far from perfect. However, this has ensured China's unusually effective operation and enabled it
to avoid pathologies typical of other autoritarian systems. For example, censorship did not disappear anywhere, but party members disagreed with thoughts and debates, and internal reports could be surprisingly simple.

Unfortunately, these times are over. Today, Xi Jingping systematically eliminates virtually any reform that has ensured China's distinctiveness and has proved to be effective in the past. Given the
in the short term, such actions reinforce their own strength and prestige and even reduce some forms of corruption. But your country and the rest of the world will be catastrophic
long-term consequences.

One of the most peculiar features of the system developed by Deng Xiaoping was the division of power between different leaders. The supreme authority did not concentrate on the hands of a single person, as in most cases
the dictatorial states – the secretary-general of the Communist Party (who is also presided over), the Prime Minister and the Politburo.

Deng Xiaoping hoped that such a system would ensure that no one could control a country like Mao Ce-tung, who was abused with unlimited power and made many gross mistakes, such as the Great Jump (where China lost 45 million people) or the Cultural Revolution Deng Xiaoping suffered and his son was so tortured that he was paralyzed).

While explaining Chinese Ministry of Education Claremont McKenna's College Minxin Pei, Deng Xiaopeng's collective leadership model has helped to seduce and promote good ideas, as all issues involve carefully considered and risky steps.

As it comes to power in 2012, Xi Jinping disrupts China's collective leadership system in a number of ways. First, the fight against corruption – an extremely important goal that China most often needs – has dismissed many official officials who have only been guilty of Xing Jingping's lack of loyalty to the supreme leader.

One of the most recent examples is Meng Hongwei, head of Interpol, who was severely arrested for a month in China. But his story is just one of many similar. Over the past six months, victims of crime have reached 1.34 million. over 170 ministers and their deputies were dismissed (most of them imprisoned).

The incredible position of Mengo Hongwei – as well as the influential leader of the Chongqing party, which was overturned in 2012 – shows that no one is protecting Xi Jingping's retaliation.

Indeed, since 2012, the members of the Central Committee of the influential Communist Party have been punished for a full period since the Communist Revolution.

He was not dissatisfied with the elimination of competitors, Xi Jinping abolished his powers by abolishing his term of office and refusing to appoint his successor, although the country's leadership was suspended for half the time.

In the Chinese Constitution, he also described "Xi Jinping's thoughts" (this respect was given only to Mao Ce-tung and Deng Xiaoping), direct control over the armed forces and nominated
"Everything's President" after setting up strategy teams that range from finance to Taiwan and cyber security issues, and they all have to pay
directly.

Another important element of the old system was that the bureaucrats expected the promotion of good work at all levels. It was not purely meritocracy in the literal sense – the system was largely based on corruption and defense. But it was still only served because a well-functioning official or officer could expect continuous career prospects and increasing revenue.

Xin Jingping, on the other hand, "an incentive-based system has changed the fear-based system," according to Minxin Pei. This shift caused two major problems.

First, the officials' priorities have emerged – they are now interested in showing loyalty instead of the results. The second problem, one of Moscow's experts, is Carnegie Center Alexander in Moscow
Gabuev, is that "in bureaucracy bureaucrats do not dare to do things without clear instructions, then the whole bureaucracy becomes passive. Nobody is left out.

Another advantage of the old system was that it encouraged local governments – provincial, provincial and provincial – to experiment with new initiatives from the free market
four decades ago before the acquisition of private property these days.

Thanks to such experiments, hundreds of political laboratories were created in China, allowing the country to try to solve the various problems with safety, calmness and significant investment.
before they are applied on a wider scale.

This system helped Beijing avoid the absurd and catastrophic problems of Mao Dzhedun's management – for example, in 1958-1962, in the Great Jump program, central designers encouraged Tibetan farmers to produce wheat, regardless of the fact that the dry mountainous area absolutely negligible to cultivate culture. Of course, Beijing had to tolerate some degree of autonomy so local officials could try out new things.

And Xing Jingping treats such self-thinking as an unbearable threat. The government has ordered it to reduce small experiments.

According to Sebastian Heilmann, the number of pilot programs carried out in the provinces from 2010 to 2016 at Trier University in Germany fell from 500 to 70. Over the past two years, this number is likely to fall. Instead, they dictate top-down strategies, regardless of the circumstances and circumstances of the particular site.

Another example: China's technology industry is famous for stealing and adapting foreign innovations, and official Chinese officials have long been similar to political leaders.
at the level of the measures: it thoroughly examines what has been affecting other countries and then adapting to home strategies. (The best example of this process is undoubtedly China's free market
According to Japan, Taiwan and the United States.)

Xing Jingping limited these practices and other innovations introduced by Deng Xiaoping, making it much more difficult for official officials to communicate with foreigners. 2014. starts confiscating the bureaucratic passport. This step is judged the same as most other restrictions – the fight against corruption, apparently in order to prevent the perpetrators from leaving the country.

However, the fact that these restrictions have recently been extended to primary school teachers and have been tightened – officials are now required to obtain authorization
foreign conferences and journeys, and when they return, they have to pay for hours outside their home country – points out that the real priority is to restrict contact with outsiders and their ideas.

How strict Xi Jingping measures will react to your country and all of us for the future?

Although it is not necessary to describe Chinese perspectives, as the detailed discussion shows, this country is capable of mastering the problems that can theoretically slow down its development
– It is difficult to avoid the grim conclusion that Xi Jingping China quickly leaves its image as an exceptional country and is increasingly aligned with a typical police state.

At the internal level, the political decisions in Beijing are inflexible and capricious.

There is no need to find the rough solutions and their negative consequences. For example, last year, the authorities decided to force the whole country to switch from heating to gas heating. This seems to be a smart decision in a country with a pollution problem like China. However, the order was announced suddenly and had to be executed without delay
exceptions. Therefore, in the northern part of the country where the climate is cold, many coal-fired furnaces have been disassembled and there is no gas, so the entire cities remain unheated and the population is heated to survive the corn bubbles.

If China continues to pursue its current policy, there will be more cases where even the best strategies are implemented, rushed and accused and will have sad consequences.

Since dictatorship never recognizes its mistakes – as the omnipotent ruler's myth can not be destroyed, China is less inclined to correct its flaws. It also deals
Emerging issues such as over-influence and ineffective state-owned businesses, which have become even more powerful and influential since the emergence of Xin Jinping and the problem of risky debt, especially among local governments, and the trend for each recession react, pump more money into the system, especially for unnecessary infrastructure projects.

It is a fact that China addresses not only the issues listed but also exacerbates them more. For example, on October 7, when the Chinese People's Bank announced another costly incentive program: € 175 billion. Support for small and medium-sized enterprises (about € 153 billion) in dollars.

Every step in the promotion of the budget, in particular because of the lack of reforms, is pushing China into a serious, destabilizing economic crisis, which is foretold by Chinese experts, such as Rukhir Sharma, head of the Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets Division, for several years.

"The main question is that one of the harassing bombs will disappear – bad debt, over-the-counter real estate market, over-state-owned companies," says Gabuyev. "Too much power," Xi Jingping had no idea that one of these bombs exploded. And since it did not go very well in the macroeconomics and everyone fears to oppose the emperor, there is a great risk that when the bomb finally explodes, it will not be able to control the situation. "

It is unlikely that the authorities will react to any destabilizing situation.

As O. Schell explains, "Xi Jinping is really in great danger of building China". As you recognize the only action – repression, in the wrong direction, increasingly stringent measures will prevail. "

Such projections must be important to everyone. China is estimated to be the world's largest economy, so if it collapses, then the whole world will pay the price.

The history of other autocrats such as Vladimir Putin Russia or Kim Jong Un North Korea warns that unstoppable Xi Jingping power games may have even worse consequences.

Xin Jingping began to apply a much more aggressive foreign policy than the Chinese leaders came to power, almost all neighbors and the United States were rejected, China
allegedly in the South China Sea, threatens Taiwan and military forces to provide Beijing with rights to the disputed islands.

With the exacerbation of economic problems in China, Xi Jingping may try to increase tensions on this front, in order to divert the attention of its citizens from the internal crisis. Such a temptation will be especially strong if US President Donald Trump continues to annoy China in intensifying and publicly condemning the commercial war.

Minxin Pei warns of a worse scenario – if China's economic problems are completely exposed.

In this case, China collapses as a state – hence the usual dictatorships, economic shocks, external threats (especially when fighting is lost) or when global confusion begins. Because of China's size, the whole world will have catastrophic consequences.

Therefore, we all hope that China will be able to withstand political gravity again and remain an exception to the rule, despite all the efforts of Xing Jingping to be "the normal" of the worst sense of the word.